The kids aren't there: why Twitter isn't crossing the chasm

Among many heavy social media users (read: bloggers) it's easy to detect a feign of dismissal about social networks like Facebook, and a strong belief that the future of social media is all in pure conversational tools, such as Twitter. Before I go any further, I would like to point out:

1. I'm a blogger

2. I love Twitter

3. I spend lots of time on Facebook

However, the fact that these tools get a lot of use from hard-core social media bloggers doesn't mean they're going to switch over to the mainstream. There's a reason for this: THE KIDS AREN'T USING THEM!

Look at most of the major technology-focused changes in society, and what do you see? First the early-movers use tools, then this 'crosses the chasm' into the mainstream. But this is almost always powered by new products/tools becoming 'cool' among the young early movers. Online forums; social networks; iPods; P2P; Computer Games; all of these went/are in the process of going from 'early adopters ---> kids/teens ---> mainstream'.

This seems to be a clear trend to me (maybe it's even the key to the chasm). I was there as a kid on some of the first social networks, on the first graphical MMORPGs (before they were 3d), along with older early-adopters, and it was us that took it mainstream. Partly because a lot of the kids grew up to be 'mainstream', and took their new behaviors with them (I have lots of friends who had the same online behaviour as me when younger, and have carried that with them - e.g moving to Facebook and World of Warcraft - without moving to blogs or Twitter. In fact, most of them).

This isn't rocket science, or revolutionary. Change almost always comes from the younger generations. If an older generation changes its behaviour, the only way this will survive or grow is if it passes down to the younger generation. Conversely, change in the younger generation is more likely to pass to the even younger generations - and grow up with the users. 

If we get to Twitter, I see a lot of heavy social media types using it, generally people who are very heavy public communicators. However, if we look at the growth in social networks, the biggest mainstream growth has been from Facebook making it easy to communicate easily with people you KNOW, and made privacy and real user information a big deal. The fact that people are heavy communicators in this semi-private/controlled space simply doesn't translate to normal Twitter/micro-blogging usage, which is highly public. And this seems to be held up by the fact that I've seen no evidence of Twitter or micro-blogging in use by kids/teens, neither statistically or anecdotally.

SO - either Twitter will never cross the chasm, or it's just yet to be picked up by the younger generation. If so, they're being slower than usual. 

What do you think?

Joshua March, iNetworkMarketing

LIVE F8 EVENT UPDATE: informal Q&A with Ami Vora at 8pm

We've just got confirmation that we'll be able to have an informal Q&A with Ami Vora, Senior Platform Manager at Facebook, from 8-8.20pm (before the pizza arrives at 8.30).  As it's earlier than the main keynotes, we'll keep this sessions focused on the technical aspects of the platform, so you can ask specific questions relating to the platform changes that have been coming into play. Her bio:

  

 Ami Vora is a Senior Platform Manager at Facebook, where she is a lead member of the team responsible for the company’s platform strategy and further expanding the Facebook developer community. Prior to Facebook, Ami was a Product Manager for the .NET Development Platform and Vista Developer tools at Microsoft. She also served on the Platform Strategy team at Microsoft. Ami holds a bachelor’s degree in computer science from Harvard University.

Facebook a really social iGoogle?

There's been lots of hype today on the Facebook blogs about the new design, which has gone live at http://new.facebook.com. Something no-one seems to have mentioned yet is the addition of a 'sponsored' section to the new homepage side bar:

At the moment this just contains a simple link to a Facebook page or application. This could just be another, more prominent, advertising link for companies wishing to promote pages or applications. However, given the more interactive and fluid nature of the new sidebar, which contains interactive parts of many of Facebook's own apps, it struck me that applications built on the platform may soon be able to add in homepage sections - just as they can on MySpace. This would make the Facebook homepage a kind of iGoogle, but far more social - and with apps which can be a direct part of whole canvas pages/websites within Facebook. 

This sponsored section could then be used by companies to effectively pay Facebook to give branded functionality to all, or a targeted selection of, users. 

Hopefully all will be revealed on Wednesday at F8! If you're in London, come along to our garage where we'll also have a live Q&A through a link-up to the main F8 conference. 

Facebook F8: Live-Streaming London Garage

Last year at the f8 Developer Conference, the Facebook Platform launched. The next f8 is on Wednesday, and we're expecting to hear some new big announcements.

We're hosting a special garage on behalf of Facebook here in London where we'll be broadcasting the f8 keynotes LIVE from San Francisco, CA. We’ll be streaming Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook, CEO), and Ben Ling’s (Director of Platform, Facebook) keynotes about the State of Platform and where it's headed in the future - and tickets will be FREE.

From London, we’ll also be connecting back to f8 and speaking with a Platform representative in real time live from the f8 Developer Conference. We may have some additional surprises in store for you as well. 

Sign-up to the Facebook event at: 

http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=36630272616

Register your ticket at eventbrite: 

http://facebookf8london.eventbrite.com/

Saying No

When I first started out in business, I found it far too easy to say yes. I had an assumption that it was always possible to come to a mutually beneficial agreement with anyone - a mix of naivety and optimism. We all have a natural compulsion to say yes to a reasonable request - something I've written about before in the context of increasing compliance with user invites in social network applications - possibly increased by the English distaste of appearing rude by saying no! However, saying no is one of the most important skills to learn.

Work out where your line is 

As an entrepreneur, I'm always looking out for potential opportunities - and when you're looking, they often come. It can be very tempting to jump on every opportunity that comes along, because of their potential - but the truth is, every idea has potential, every company could rise or fall, and often it's execution that is the most important factor. And here's the nudge - by spreading yourself too thinly, the execution of your individual projects will weaken, and the opportunities will turn to dust. 

This doesn't just apply to business opportunities - it's also directly relevant to professional services such as consultancy, both in terms of clients, and in price. I was chatting to a great friend of mine last week, Thayer Driver,  who has many years experience consulting in the social media industry. When she started, she maintained several different clients at the same time, spending 1-2 days a week with each of them. She found it increasingly difficult to be able to focus on a particular client's issues, and realised that she would be far more effective if she was focusing on just one client at a time. 

For myself, I have been working on a new social media product with a small team over the summer, which has required a lot of work (and still more) before we start generating revenue for it. We are self-funded at the moment, which means I have to maintain a balance between business development for the new product, and creating short-term revenue by consulting on social media strategy and social network application development and marketing for clients. This is a pure time/money analysis. It can be tempting to take on consultancy projects because of the short term cash benefits, especially if you already have a working relationship with the client, but if the project is going to be time consuming and they're not willing to pay your full price, you're going to be better off putting your limited time into other things. You've got to be prepared to walk away.

Once you're clear what your focus is you can plan your availability in time and your requirements for new opportunities - whether that's price, equity stake, connections, whatever. The important thing is that you know it, and are upfront about it when new opportunities come along. There's nothing wrong with saying no. More opportunities will come along. Being able to say no is the difference between controlling where you go, and being controlled by others. 

Application Design: does the 'Facebook Style' really matter?

Joshua March: Application Design; Does the 'Facebook Style' Matter? from Joshua March on Vimeo.

Application Design: does the 'Facebook Style' really matter?

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The presentation from a short talk I did at the Facebook Developer Garage London on whether sticking to the 'Facebook Style' matters when designing applications. It was based on some initial research of the top 50 apps on Facebook. The research was sufficiently interesting that I'm going to be undertaking some more serious research on this (looking at, for example, the top 100 apps under daily engagement, active users, and fastest growing to compare the trends). A video of the presentation is forthcoming...


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Facebook developer garage tomorrow night

The July Facebook developer garage for London is on Wednesday evening. More details can be found on theFacebook event page

• Ashley Ward CEO of European Leadership Forum gives essential advice for raising money for your Facebook App.
  
• Brad Rees and Jon Hill from Mediacells explore the future of mobile advertising on facebook apps
  
• Matthew ‘Chewy’ Trewhella from Google enlightens us a bit on OpenSocial 0.8
  
• Mat Clayton CEO of Wakari, developer of Become Rambo tells us about his new cross platform app for the upcoming film Hancock
  
• Exciting news on a Formula One Application
  

And to top it off, I'll be talking on application design. The event is hosted by Sun Microsystems at 45, King William Street, London.