IM, Social Networks, and the Death of the SMS

This week has seen some big news for Instant Messaging (IM): first, the huge Bebo acquisition by AOL, and their subsequent announcement of integration with their AIM and ICQ IM clients (the NYT called it "Bebo: Randy Falco’s $850 Million Rescue Plan for AIM"); and second the announcement that Facebook is planning to launch its own IM service. 

This could mark quite a step change in the IM and social net spheres. IM is a great tool for having multiple one-on-one in-depth conversations. For myself, I used it a lot as a teenager, as did all my friends, spending hours chatting away to friends at home as well as friends all over the world. However, as I grew up, went to university, left home, I made new friends, and gradually my 'friend' list on MSN became more and more outdated. Now, it has almost no relation to my social graph, other than the few old friends I've stayed in touch with. I do use it still - but apart from those few friends it's now mainly for work purposes. 

For myself, my social graph on Facebook is pretty accurate and up to date. If I was going to chat to anyone on IM, it would be the people I'm friends with on Facebook.

I'm betting that this move could create a boost for IM among adult users of social networks out of the work sphere as it becomes an easy means of communicating with friends, without the need to keep your IM contact list up to date with your social graph. 

Fubar, and Live Chat Groups

I was involved recently in research on the social network Fubar, which gained some coverage when Compete reported that it had grown 3,272,217% in the last year. One of the most stand-out features of this site is its heavy use of IM and live chat between users. All users have a 'shoutbox', which allows any other user on the site to start up a private IM chat with them when they're both online, and their groups (or 'lounges') use live chat, rather than the discussion forum / bulletin board system of most other social networks. 

This is interesting, as normal 'chat rooms' have declined in popularity considerably since the rise of social networks has allowed users to interact more readily with their friends online, and with 'real people', which the anonymity of the original chat rooms made difficult. By combining social networks with live chat and IM, however, users know who they're talking to, and the chat will often be more constructive and less brazen or offensive - if users have spent a long time building up a social network profile and friend list, they don't want to have their account removed for acting like idiots in a chat room. What's most interesting about this is that the lounges in Fubar are far more lively, interactive and engaging than the groups on Facebook, which most of the time can seem pretty dead. 

With the speed that Fubar has grown in the last year, it would be silly of the big social networks not to be looking at what they're offering, and it will be interesting to see if they start offering live chat in groups as well. 

Mobile Integration and the Death of the SMS

With more and more social networks integrating in the mobile sphere, and services like Yahoo's OneConnect looking to integrate these further, this could be a great opportunity to have easy phone based IM with all of your contacts. A similar service is already available with the Blackberry Messenger, but this is only for BB users, and requires knowing an additional 'pin', so has quite high barriers to entry. However, it is great to use - and between friends who are BB users, it makes it really easy to chat and stay constantly in touch, without having to worry about the limitations (or cost) of SMS. If I had my whole social graph on Blackberry messenger, and they were all connected regardless of their phone, I would use it as my primary communication tool. 

The Monetisation Issue

This is the one problem with all the above - how is anyone going to make any money (apart from the mobile service providers who can charge a data tariff)? IM has traditionally been very hard to monetise - ads, like on social networks, are pretty ineffective, and for the same reasons - users are looking to engage with each other, not to click away somewhere else. 

It looks as though Facebook will be keeping the IM on site for the time being - which they're betting will increase time spent on the site, and hopefully ad clicks. However, this isn't how users like to use IM, and I expect clients will become available, either from FB itself or through an API. 

There are lots of possibilities - e.g. integrating IM with applications (as MSN has done with some games), paid virtual gifts with the emoticons (or branded emoticons), direct branding or sponsorship opportunities (e.g. the Chat Box at DontStayIn is sponsored by O2). 

It will be interesting to look at the different strategies used by Facebook and Bebo, and of course to keep an eye on the activities of the other social networks in this area.